First Deputy President – Chairman of the Management Board and CFO of VTB Dmitry Pianov explained in which case the Central Bank will raise the key rate to 23%.
The expert described a scenario in which the Bank of Russia would have to take such a measure.
The decision will be made based on the inflation rate, RBC reports.
If it accelerates to 8% in 2025, then raising the key rate to 23% is quite likely.
But this is a pessimistic scenario. The main one looks like this: inflation of 6% and the key rate of 19%.
The optimistic scenario assumes a slowdown in inflation to 4% and a reduction in the rate to 11%.
As for the near future, it is possible that by the end of 2024 the key rate will reach 20%.
On September 13, the regulator raised it to 19%. A new meeting of the Central Bank on this issue is scheduled for October 25.
Analysts believe that the Central Bank will continue the cycle of tightening monetary policy to achieve the optimal level of inflation (4%).
