The State Duma warned about the possible consequences of a sharp reduction in the key rate in 2025.
A rate cut of 5-10 percentage points could cause a sharp rise in prices.
Valery Tumin, a member of the expert council for the development of the digital economy under the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, said this in a conversation with Gazeta.Ru .
He stressed that a large rate cut would lead to increased demand and create a supply shortage.
He also noted that, unlike in 2022, when the rate dropped sharply, in 2025 this process will be smoother.
Tumin predicted that next year the rate will decrease by 5-6 percentage points, but will not fall below 17%.
According to the expert, the most important factor influencing the level of inflation will be the size of government spending.
Tumin warned that too sharp a reduction in the key rate could provoke a rise in prices and increased inflation.
The Bank of Russia will have to balance its policy, taking into account possible economic changes in 2025.
