The Central Bank of Russia has adjusted its inflation forecast.
The regulator announced an increase in its forecast for 2024-2025 after a meeting of the Board of Directors.
The Central Bank sharply raised the annual rate to 21% and updated its medium-term forecasts, the Bank of Russia website reports.
The new baseline inflation scenario takes into account changes in the budget, price increases and tariffs.
The forecast was raised due to high inflationary pressures and rising inflation expectations
To return inflation to the target level of 4%, the key rate must be higher than the July assumptions.
Inflation is expected to remain in the range of 8 to 8.5% this year.
In 2025, a decrease to 4.5-5% is predicted, and in 2026 - to 4%.
The Central Bank believes that inflation will remain at this level in 2027.
The main risks to inflation are associated with high inflation expectations.
The deviation of the economy from balanced growth and the deterioration of foreign trade conditions also affect the growth forecast.
Therefore, changing the parameters of fiscal policy may require adjustments to monetary policy.
