An economist has suggested how the key rate might change by the end of the year.
According to the expert, its value will not exceed 20%.
Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, shared his opinion with Lenta.ru .
As the expert noted, the strategy chosen by the Central Bank should bear fruit next year. He predicted that this will happen around the first quarter of 2025.
Ostapkovich recalled that an increase in the key rate is always followed sooner or later by a decrease in inflation. However, for this to happen, 3 to 5 quarters must pass.
However, at the moment, only the fourth quarter has begun since the Central Bank began raising the rate.
Therefore, at the end of the year, the inflation rate will reach a plateau, and at the beginning of the next year, it will begin to decline. Following it, deposit rates will also fall, the expert noted.
However, this will only happen in the future, and for now, deposit rates, especially in the short term, will grow. We are talking about 21-22%, Ostapkovich concluded.
